A study by David Frame and Daithi Stone analyzed climate data collected across the planet from the years 1990-2010. After running various models, they found two averages; 0.35 C and 0.39 C. These numbers get even closer to 0.55 when an adjustment is added (that accounts for naturally occurring seasonal fluctuations in global temperature).
What makes this so impressive is the inherent uncertainty of climatic predictions. There are unpredictable external forces that act on climatic systems that are difficult to effectively capture in mathematical models, such as volcanic eruptions, and socio-economical changes. Hopefully this example will add weight to the use of predictive models, as they are currently one of our best tools to make informed decisions about climate change.
Sources and Further Reading
- Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change,Nature Climate Change (2012) David Frame and Daithi Stone